Oil...Technicals changing...

Nếu giá dầu tiếp tục giảm trong thời gian tới $120 / thùng và sau đó thì tiếp tục thấp nữa thì cần chú ý những biến động sau:
- giá vàng cũng sẽ giảm theo.
- áp lực lạm phát lên các nền kinh tế sẽ giảm
- đối với VN, khi crack spread giảm mạnh (chênh lệch giá giữa giá sản phẩm và giá dầu thô) cũng sẽ hỗ trợ giảm áp lực nhập siêu trong xăng dầu. Đồng thời các sản phẩm nhập khẩu gốc xăng dầu hoặc có chi phí vận chuyển cao cũng có thể giảm.
- Các mặt hàng như nông sản cũng sẽ có áp lực giảm giá.

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From Jeremy Hale, Global Macro Strategy:

WTI probably needs to fall below $120/bl to even begin to suggest that the bull trend is flagging and even then we may just be back in the rising channel which started mid 2007. Our trading desk reports strong interest to buy down around that level from consumers that missed the move up.

However, a couple of technical factors are worth watching:

- The term structure has swung from backwardated to contango, quite strongly so in the case of Brent crude. Some products are also in contango eg gasoil, heating oil. WTI is in contango for the first couple of contracts but backwardated thereafter. Airline hedging, which may be greater in Europe because credit quality of companies is better, could explain some of the back months divergence between Brent and WTI

- The crack spreads between products and crude are also sharply off the highs (-25%) falling from over 43/bl for the gasoil-brent crack to around 32-33/bl now

Both factors are less supportive of crude than before, possibly opening room for some further downside short term in crude prices to 120 or so.Note from our RV trade note yesterday that technicals are worse in many softs than in the energy contracts so if oil is going to correct a bit more, so too could softs.

Maybe this might be enough to ease the pain in rates markets front ends, especially UK and Euro, with inflation expectations off a bit until oil finds a base.