Bài viết về tỷ giá VND trên WSJ - piece of crap - phản hồi bằng tiếng Anh

VND appreciation (actually abt over 3% since early 07 … as bbg cant hv real mkt lvl) is still consider mild and just 3% already cause “pain” ? I doubt it.

Maybe the writer is confused abt the fact that vnd is actually trading far below the band and lead to difficulties for banks to buy usd (because banks are governed by official rate which mean they can legally only buy at floor rate not mrkt rate explicitly) … and what abt Vnese lose confidence in USD? isnt that good for de-dollarization policy that Vnese government wants to implement for so long ? FII equity investors cant sell USD and that make equity market crashed ?

However, this issue might soon revert course. With all the mess in subprime happening now and probably more to come in late Mar and Apr will force banks to cut GAAP assets, funds / asset managers / banks to unwind outstanding trades with each other because they afraid to be endup with “sorry mate, we don’t have money for margin calls” notice … this will lead to a much more severe “fire sales” of asset than what we saw late 2007. And if it come to VN, dude, it will be very ugly ….I don’t have data on how much of outstanding govi / corp bonds are held by non-resident (both cash and via access trades) but it could easily reach 40% of $8bio mrkt cap. Not sure if this will also lead to exodus from equity investors which prob holding abt 30% of the whole mrkt. But i guess we only need 1bio of usd flight out of the country within 1mth to see how quickly things will change.

In fact, the reason SBV has been reluctant to buy USD, especially from FII investors, was cited from SBV official that I talked to as signal that SBV doesn’t welcome such flow in late 07 and early 08. That why many “big boy” funds, iBanks, Banks request to meet SBV to discuss this sticky issue (the mrkt reluctant to buy USDVND and SBV doesn’t intervene) and look at the fact … it’s going nowhere. It’s can be explained as “technical barrier” for non-resident to access the onshore mrkt.

This will be very interesting to watch in weeks to come … guys watch out for bumpy road with the size of pot-holes we never seen before.